Will John Carter Crash or Soar?
By Bill Bonfanti
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BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF MARCH 9-11
There are three new films opening in wide release this weekend: All eyes are on Disney's expensive sci-fi epic John Carter which may be a huge flop at the box office, Eddie Murphy is in kiddie territory again in Paramount's A Thousand Words and indie darling Elizabeth Olsen stars in horror thriller Silent House from Open Road Films.
Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate about $109.6 million over the weekend, down about 2.1% from last year when alien invasion flick Battle: Los Angeles from Sony and Paramount's Rango led the overall Top 10 to a total of $111.9 million.
Click here to see the Box Office Predictions Chart
Preview Box Office Predictions For Next Weekend
JOHN CARTER
After much speculation, we will finally learn this weekend whether Disney's expensive sci-fi epic John Carter will be the box office flop that most of Tinseltown has been anticipating. The film, based on the 100 year-old book series from Edward Rice Burroughs, stars Taylor Kitsch, best known for the TV series Friday Night Lights, as the titular character. Kitsch is about to have a make it or break it year also starring in this summer's Battleship and Oliver Stone's Savages also being released this summer. Will the film be able to shake off months of negative buzz and become a solid earner at the box office? Being deemed a hit is unlikely and Disney may just have to be satisfied with John Carter not being as big a bomb as expected. The unusual thing about this movie is that it is getting fairly decent to terrific reviews and it seems that any real negative buzz that has started was due to the atrocious marketing campaign Disney has done for the film.
First off, the geniuses at the Mouse House decided to shorten the title from John Carter of Mars. The new title is ridiculously generic and if you have no awareness of the film, one could easily think the film was about a baseball player or an orphaned teenager or a fantastic lawyer or just about anything. It's possible that after last year's box office disaster, Mars Needs Moms (which coincidentally opened this very weekend last year), Disney decided anything with Mars in the title was box office poison. This was followed by truly uninspired trailers that barely hinted at the story and made the film look like a lesser version of The Prince of Persia, minus a well-known leading man. The trailer didn't even mention the fact that the film is based on the grandfather of all sci-fi stories and instead made it look like it was just an inferior rip-off of many films before it.
In all fairness, the marketing campaign has been better over the last two weeks or so. The trailers now mention Burroughs, show a little more story and are being peppered with quotes from critics who loved the film. Disney also released a 10 minute clip of the film which has gotten a good response. The question is whether it is a matter of too little, too late; has the negative buzz already done too much damage? The film has very little competition from new films which is good and there is no other film that is competing for the interest of the fanboy audience. John Carter will lose quite a lot of family traffic to a surprisingly stronger than expected Lorax and may lose some young adults to Project X as well. If word of mouth is good, the film may have a decent hold next weekend when only one new film, comedy 21 Jump Street, enters the fray. Following that, John Carter will likely be obliterated by The Hunger Games, which is shaping up to be a force to reckon with. Look for John Carter to blast off with about $26 million.
SILENT HOUSE
R-rated horror thriller Silent House stars Elizabeth Olsen as a young woman who is trapped inside her family's lakeside cabin as happenings become increasingly threatening in and around the house. Olsen is best known for her starring role in critically acclaimed but little seen indie film Martha Marcy May Marlene and also as the younger sister to the Olsen twins. Although the actress has yet to be tested at the box office, horror fans are generally accepting of films with no stars if the concept is compelling enough. Silent House has two things going for it in that regard. The marketing has made it very clear that the film is inspired by true events, something that usually helps in the horror genre. The other thing is that the film takes place in real time and was actually filmed in one continuous take.
As far as competition goes, there hasn't been a horror movie in theatres for weeks, but Silent House may lose a good portion of men to John Carter and young adults will still be distracted by Project X. The reviews have been mixed, but any good reviews for a horror movie is generally a win and it may convince some casual horror fans to give the film a shot. Expect Silent House to scare up about $9.5 million this weekend.
A THOUSAND WORDS
It looks as though Paramount's PG-13 rated Eddie Murphy comedy A Thousand Words is yet another box office failure for the once popular star. The film has been sitting on the shelf for a few years now and Paramount has finally chosen this weekend to release the film. The marketing campaign has been weak at best and the film has yet to be screened for critics. A few months ago, it looked like Murphy was about to have a big comeback due to his role in Tower Heist and the announcement that he was going to host the Academy Awards. Unfortunately, Tower Heist under-performed at the box office and Murphy stepped down as Oscar host.
Fast-forward to now and Murphy is set to have another in a long line of flops at the box office. A Thousand Words is directed by Brian Robbins, who also collaborated with Murphy on Norbit and Meet Dave. While Norbit performed at the box office, Meet Dave is one of the biggest bombs of Murphy's career. It should be noted that both films were destroyed by critics and got some of the worst reviews of Murphy's illustrious career. While the possibility still exists that Murphy may someday make a return to his box office throne, it seems that it is not going to be anytime soon. I'm anticipating A Thousand Words to open quietly with about $5 million this weekend.
Click here to see the Box Office Predictions Chart (including the rest of Bill's weekend predictions).
Based on my estimates for the Friday to Sunday period, total box office will be down about 2.1% from 2011.
Source: the-numbers.com, HSX, filmgo.net, imdb.com
Bill Bonfanti writes daily as Box Office Analyst and Film Critic for FilmGo.net. Sign up today for FilmGo's FREE Box Office Newsletter. Learn More
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